CHRISTIAAN BAKKES and MARCIA FARGNOLI
Elephants in Etosha National Park © Marcia Fargnoli |
A Blank Space on the Map
On the official map of the
Great Elephant Census (GEC) there is a
conspicuous blank space cutting through a migrating elephant population. This
blank space is the Zambezi region of Namibia- the narrow strip formerly known
as the Caprivi. This is the only place in the region where elephant population
statistics are unverified.
It is part of the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation area. This
area includes Northern Botswana, South-Eastern Angola and South-Western Zambia,
with Namibia wedged in between.
According to the statistics of the
GEC, South-Western
Zambia is showing an alarming decline in elephant numbers at more than 5%.
Angola shows a decline of 2-5%. Botswana's elephant numbers are rated as stable
with a population of approximately 130,000.
In between lies Namibia. In a recent CITES
report Namibia has given
its official elephant numbers as 22,711, of which 13,136 live in the North-East
of the country.
It is, however impossible to verify those numbers, because Namibia decided
not to be part of the GEC. Of all the countries with substantial elephant
populations, Namibia was the only one that elected not to participate.
Namibia is also one of the few countries in Africa that aims to legalise
the ivory trade.
Elephants in the Ugab River © Christiaan Bakkes |
The Trade
Debate
A study published in June 2016 by the National Bureau of
Economic Research produced damning evidence that the 2008 once-off sale in
legal ivory served to fuel the demand, resulting in increased elephant
poaching. The researchers from
Princeton University and the University of California-Berkeley demonstrate in their study that the legal sale
directly caused the increase in illegal ivory production by about 66 percent
resulting in the deaths of an estimated 100,000
elephants. Although the sale was approved by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild
Fauna and Flora (CITES) with the intention to
satisfy the ivory demand in China and Japan, it only served to have the
opposite effect.
Namibia took part in that sale.
According to Solomon Hsiang, one of the
authors of the study, now
that the data has proven that legal ivory sales result in the increase in poaching,
legalizing the sale of ivory should not be considered again. Yet, Namibia,
along with Japan, aimed to get approval to allow for a regulated domestic ivory
trade at an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Congress in
Honolulu, Hawaii. The Congress did not
approve the amendments proposed by these two countries and upheld the motion to close all domestic ivory trade.
In addition, many African countries have proposed for all African elephants to receive the highest protection with no option for
trade in ivory under an Appendix I listing by CITES. In opposition, Namibia has submitted a proposal that their elephants remain on Appendix II which would allow for a future legal
trade in ivory under another proposal. These proposals are currently being
deliberated at the CITES Conference of the Parties (CoP 17) in Johannesburg.
Elephants in the Hoanib River © Marcia Fargnoli |
Maintaining Wildlife on a Sustainable
Basis
Elephants and rhinos are specially
protected in Namibia and according to the Constitution must be maintained on a sustainable basis for present and future generations.
Sustainability requires a species to be available in the long term for future
generations and to never be depleted. Namibia‘s
Environmental Management Act (2007) enshrines the Precautionary Principle in law to ensure that cautious decisions
are made with regard to the wildlife.
The Namibian government encourages hunting
and the exporting of trophies as part of the National
Policy on Tourism for Namibia (2008) and the Policy
on Tourism and Wildlife Concessions on State Land. In these policies, the government claims that
money generated from such practices can be used to protect the wildlife and
discourage poaching by the communities. In 2016, Namibia’s Cabinet directed the
Ministry of Environment and Tourism to “actively
campaign against any attempt to ban or restrict hunting and the export of
wildlife products from Namibia.”
The Ministry of Environment and Tourism “has
established a national annual export quota through CITES of 90 trophy hunted
elephants per year (180 tusks per year).”Proponents
of elephant hunting and trading in their trophies claim that it is
sustainable.
However, especially in the event of a
decreasing elephant population or a rise in poaching, it is practical to
question how it can be considered sustainable to legally hunt or trade in a
species that is facing a poaching crisis and is vulnerable to extinction.
It could be disastrous if Namibia has
overestimated how many elephants it has or underestimated the poaching
crisis. In this situation, the result of
hunting, poaching and trading in ivory could seriously drive the species
further towards extinction.
Here, the Precautionary Principle must be
implemented in accordance with Namibia‘s
Environmental Management Act (2007) to
ensure sustainability of the species.
When the exact result from the combination of hunting, poaching and
trading is not fully known, the adopted policy must err on the side of caution
and be careful of unintended consequences.
Elephant in the Zambezi Region ©Marcia Fargnoli |
Elephant Population Status
In order to understand the best policy
decisions with regard to protection of wildlife such as elephants, it is
critical to understand the accurate status of the species.
With regard to the actual state of
elephants in Africa, the Great Elephant Census (GEC) recently announced its
findings after conducting a 2 year intense survey. This continental elephant
count produced startling results.
Before the census, many experts, including
those from the IUCN, believed that there were around 600,000 savanna elephants
left in Africa. However, the GEC
produced a count of only 352,271 elephants, far less than what was previously
estimated, representing a 30% decrease in just seven years.
According
to a recent CITES report, Namibia claims to have a stable and growing elephant
population of 22,711 elephants.Namibia had the opportunity to have their elephant statistics subjected to the
highest international standards with expert peer review under the GEC at no
cost to Namibia, but it chose not to. If
Namibia has such a large population of elephants, why did it choose not to be
part of the GEC? The reason is unknown.
During the GEC, many elephants were fitted
with satellite collars in order to plot migration routes and cross border
movements. The monitoring of elephant movement in such a manner brought
important evidence to light. For example, the satellite
images of the census clearly illustrate how collared elephants that lived in
Zambia, Angola and Namibia in 2011 moved and became concentrated together in
Northern Botswana by 2014.
Botswana came out of the census as the
African country with the most elephants at 130,000.
When questioning the actual state of
Namibia’s elephants, it is important to note that Namibia
has submitted official statistics to CITES that states that some 13,136 of
Namibia’s 22,711 elephants are located in the north-eastern part of the country. This makes them part of the migratory herds
that move freely between Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Angola. Many
of them could already be included in Botswana’s count and Namibia may be
overestimating how many elephants it currently has.
Having the correct
statistics should help national and international authorities to make the correct
decisions on how best to protect the species. It is difficult to be sure for
Namibia, as the data has unfortunately not been verified.
Elephants in the Hoanib River © Marcia Fargnoli |
The Poaching Crisis
The GEC has verified reports on an elephant
genocide across Africa. The numbers of this slaughter are staggering. The
research team of the GEC claim Africa has lost 144,000 elephants since 2007, at
a rate of around 27,000 a year. Angola,
Cameroon, Mozambique and Tanzania seem to be the worst affected countries.
In Namibia, there are some inconsistencies
in poaching statistics. With regard to
rhinos, for example, recently Namibia’s Minister of Environment and Tourism, Pohamba
Shifeta, stated in a press release that approximately 162
rhinos have been poached between January 2015 and August 2016. The Minister disclosed that about 125 rhinos
were killed from January to December 2015 alone while another 35 carcasses were
discovered in 2016. There is a discrepancy in official reports, however. In
the authorised CITES report submitted for CoP17, the endorsed record of rhinos
poached in Namibia in 2015 is 90 rhinos,
meaning that a large number of poached rhinos were left out of the official
CITES statistics for 2015.
In comparison, “elephant
mortalities this year rose to 31 animals, bringing the total since January 2015
to 80.” By
adding up the statistics
from CITES and official
press releases, it
can be ascertained that at least 274 elephants have been poached in Namibia
since 2012. One must question
whether there are any further discrepancies in these statistics.
Statistics aside, poaching is on the
increase and it does not appear like the problem will be under control any time
soon as criminal syndicates have started to shift their attention from East
Africa to the southern African herds. In
Namibia, there is a failure in enforcement with many outstanding poaching
incidents, few perpetrators being caught and even less poaching cases going to
court. The number of cases that have
been successfully completed and those still on the court roll are not fully
disclosed to the Namibian public.
In the rare cases where poachers or traders
end up in court, they get pitifully light sentences that serve as no deterrent.
Recently, five convicted black rhino poachers were sentenced to a mere six
years in prison. Two smugglers caught with pangolin got off with a meager N$300
(US$23) fine each. There is very little
deterrence against poaching in Namibia.
Minister
Shifeta laments “the fact that many of those
arrested have previously been released on bail, and gone back into repeating
their crimes” However,
Deputy Prosecutor General Philippus Brink says “that
prosecutors do object to bail as far as they can but are also dependent on
other role players such as the police to provide them with information that can
constitute a legal objection to bail.” In Namibia, there remain serious concerns
with failures on all levels from insufficient enforcement, incomplete
investigations, missing evidence, overburdened understaffed courts and
inadequate penalties.
Unintended Consequences
Namibia asserts that it should be granted
special permission to trade in ivory because it claims to have a stable growing
population of elephants. Although the IUCN recently denied the ivory trade
proposal, Namibia has again proposed the legalized ivory trade to CITES.
Given the fact that Namibia did not
participate in the GEC to subject their elephant data to expert peer review
leaves a question about the actual status of Namibia’s elephants. One can even question the poaching statistics
which show signs of discrepancies. If
the population is not stable, is subject to increased poaching or is in large
part migratory, should trade even be considered at all?
A large portion of Namibia’s elephants are
likely migrating between countries. Those elephants do not belong to Namibia
alone. This is one reason why
international conservation laws such as CITES are made: to protect animals that roam between countries. No country can independently decide the fate
of migratory animals.
This
is highlighted in the SADC Protocol on Wildlife Conservation and Law
Enforcement (1999) which Namibia is a party to.
It states that “Each party shall ensure that activities within its
jurisdiction or control do not cause damage to the wildlife resources of other
states.” Namibia has been persistent in issuing hunting permits for elephants and making
proposals to international authorities to allow for Namibia to trade in ivory,
but these decisions could cause damage to elephants that are migratory and are
therefore resources of other states.
Namibia also signed the London
Declaration on Illegal Wildlife Trade (2014) which clearly states that all
signatories must oppose the trade in wildlife products where they could
stimulate poaching, trafficking or demand. The recent study published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research has demonstrated that legal
ivory sales only serve to intensify poaching, trafficking and demand.
Experts also agreed at the recent IUCN Congress “that any elephant ivory
supply, including legal domestic markets, creates opportunities for the
laundering of illegal elephant ivory under the guise of legality.” This is particularly concerning given the hard-to-control, porous borders
between Namibia, Angola, and Zambia. Even
if Namibia’s elephant population is currently stable, it remains nearly
impossible to control poaching in this area, let alone the laundering of
ivory.
The Precautionary Principle suggests that,
in the absence of certainty, the appropriate course of action is to err on the
side of caution and be careful of unintended consequences.
In the name of conservation and species
survival, Namibia should err on side of caution in accordance with its own laws
and international obligations and should acknowledge that the legal sale of
ivory could accelerate the demise of the species. Elephants are already facing a continental
crisis. Any miscalculation could lead
to extinction. Should Namibia not now join hands with its neighbours by
committing itself to closing the ivory market in order to save the species?
Elephants in the Hoanib River © Marcia Fargnoli |
A very well researched and written article that is objective and hopefully challenges the authorities to more carefully consider the most appropriate course of action
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